***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.6 12.6 119.6 71.2 49.4 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.0 17.7 13.3 122.8 71.7 54.9 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 12.2 24.5 15.0 139.5 75.3 60.1 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.9 23.8 12.9 146.9 76.9 57.3 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.4 24.2 12.5 151.0 77.1 60.7 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.9 15.5 12.0 124.9 71.9 55.9 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 13.6 13.1 123.0 72.0 53.3 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.0 24.1 8.7 94.3 63.3 48.9 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.0 22.8 11.4 120.0 71.1 52.2 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 21.8 11.1 109.8 68.0 53.4 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 16.7 18.2 11.1 134.8 73.3 60.7 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.7 12.9 7.8 107.6 67.1 49.7 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.7 23.2 11.1 159.0 78.7 61.8 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.8 27.5 15.5 112.7 69.3 53.4 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.3 12.0 12.1 155.0 78.4 59.6 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 17.7 9.9 127.4 72.0 53.3 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.1 17.6 13.8 128.2 73.0 56.2 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 14.6 11.6 97.9 64.6 50.6 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 17.4 14.0 128.3 72.9 56.5 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.5 24.8 14.5 123.9 71.3 59.9 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.4 21.7 12.4 128.4 73.1 53.6 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.3 20.4 15.2 132.7 73.4 56.5 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.4 22.6 14.4 130.8 73.6 57.9 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.6 23.0 12.5 106.8 67.4 51.9 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 19.9 29.8 17.0 166.5 80.3 64.3 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.8 18.0 10.7 155.0 78.0 60.1 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.3 23.1 15.7 142.1 75.7 58.6 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.2 14.9 10.9 138.1 74.9 55.9 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.9 28.0 14.9 116.0 69.4 58.2 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.1 12.5 13.4 123.0 71.8 54.4 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------