***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 22.9 24.2 26.2 -0.5 43.6 45.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.0 25.6 -0.9 38.5 41.0 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.3 26.3 -0.7 41.3 43.4 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 16.2 17.9 24.7 0.1 51.4 50.6 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.9 25.0 24.6 -0.6 42.4 44.5 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.4 22.7 0.0 49.4 49.8 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.9 24.1 26.0 -0.5 43.1 44.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.1 23.0 -0.8 40.5 43.1 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.5 24.7 -0.7 41.9 44.0 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.3 23.6 -0.6 43.4 45.1 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 23.6 24.4 24.4 -0.9 39.7 42.5 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.1 23.6 24.2 -1.1 37.1 40.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 24.1 24.9 23.5 -0.9 39.3 42.7 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.5 24.5 -0.4 45.4 46.2 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.9 26.1 0.3 53.5 52.0 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 24.6 25.6 24.2 -0.6 42.8 45.0 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.5 25.4 -0.8 39.9 41.8 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.6 23.1 -0.3 46.2 47.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.7 25.8 -1.0 38.3 41.0 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.6 19.8 20.8 -0.4 45.4 46.7 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 23.5 24.6 25.6 -0.6 42.9 44.7 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 22.9 24.0 25.4 -0.7 40.6 42.3 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.0 26.1 -0.8 40.8 42.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.2 24.5 -0.4 44.8 45.9 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 23.4 24.9 24.7 -0.3 46.6 46.9 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.9 24.5 24.0 -0.9 38.4 42.5 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 23.1 24.7 25.4 -0.2 46.8 46.9 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 24.2 25.8 25.2 0.2 52.7 51.7 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.0 22.1 -0.4 45.7 46.7 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.0 25.9 -0.8 40.2 42.4 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------