***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 62.9 98.9 48.6 210.3 90.5 81.6 23.7 36.4 51.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 61.9 85.4 49.3 198.5 88.3 79.5 28.5 40.0 53.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 69.7 102.1 46.5 193.7 88.5 79.5 29.9 43.7 60.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 80.0 111.1 57.8 198.6 88.0 80.0 33.0 48.5 66.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 62.1 90.5 56.5 191.0 87.5 79.3 24.0 36.9 52.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 60.8 78.5 67.8 174.3 83.7 75.2 21.7 34.4 50.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 64.8 92.5 50.5 200.6 88.5 80.2 26.5 39.2 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 103.0 132.1 56.5 168.3 83.5 73.6 48.1 68.5 91.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 66.0 91.0 54.8 186.8 87.2 78.4 30.1 42.9 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 71.3 93.9 59.8 174.8 85.1 76.5 32.7 46.7 62.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 59.9 85.2 48.6 193.8 87.7 78.4 25.3 37.2 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 56.1 76.2 45.0 179.4 84.5 73.2 23.6 35.3 49.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 58.9 75.7 52.3 179.8 84.5 75.7 24.0 35.7 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 87.8 117.4 62.6 181.0 87.0 77.6 42.8 58.8 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 48.3 72.2 52.1 196.8 87.1 76.9 14.8 25.1 38.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 63.1 87.4 50.7 193.1 86.7 78.1 23.7 36.4 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 64.7 85.9 51.1 195.4 87.1 78.2 30.2 41.8 55.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 73.8 92.7 65.9 167.9 83.8 75.8 32.5 46.8 63.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 65.6 91.8 48.1 196.6 88.3 78.8 30.1 42.3 56.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 83.1 98.1 69.6 150.4 79.6 71.5 37.4 54.0 73.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 66.3 96.6 48.6 193.7 88.3 79.9 25.2 38.6 54.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 70.1 90.0 50.0 182.5 85.0 75.9 34.8 47.7 62.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 64.1 91.1 48.7 194.2 88.5 78.0 29.6 41.9 56.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 79.1 106.6 58.1 179.7 86.7 78.0 37.0 52.0 69.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 68.6 105.6 60.2 205.3 89.9 82.0 24.0 37.6 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 48.7 61.2 45.4 177.5 83.8 75.4 20.0 29.5 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 71.7 110.3 58.6 209.6 90.4 82.2 27.6 41.7 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 49.4 68.5 55.1 195.9 87.1 77.8 19.8 29.6 41.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 103.2 123.9 66.7 161.8 82.2 74.2 50.6 69.7 91.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 57.8 81.5 48.6 199.3 88.7 79.9 26.2 37.0 49.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------