***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 15.1 8.5 138.8 75.1 50.0 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.9 17.0 9.8 158.3 79.0 51.8 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.1 15.5 8.7 137.3 74.9 50.4 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.6 21.0 10.9 148.9 77.3 49.4 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 15.5 11.4 149.9 77.4 50.0 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 12.6 15.2 139.6 75.6 50.7 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.7 19.2 10.1 154.4 78.3 51.5 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.0 25.1 12.6 145.2 76.5 52.5 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.5 12.3 11.1 138.2 75.2 49.5 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 14.0 12.6 136.2 74.7 51.8 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.5 17.1 10.6 170.1 80.8 51.8 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.2 16.2 10.4 166.3 80.3 50.5 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.4 12.5 11.3 148.0 77.2 50.3 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.8 24.2 12.3 149.7 77.4 54.2 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.8 11.6 9.8 152.7 78.0 47.6 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.5 16.9 11.0 166.2 80.3 51.4 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.8 18.5 9.7 146.2 76.7 48.4 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.5 14.0 13.5 123.8 71.8 51.8 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.4 20.7 9.3 158.1 79.0 51.4 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 20.2 15.8 118.3 70.6 52.9 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.2 13.2 8.9 130.0 73.4 49.0 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.7 17.5 8.9 131.1 73.5 48.4 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.8 17.6 9.5 163.6 80.0 51.9 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.9 16.2 11.5 134.1 74.1 52.3 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 15.3 10.5 135.5 74.7 51.8 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.4 10.9 9.6 148.1 77.1 50.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 15.6 10.4 139.3 75.4 52.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.0 11.9 10.9 157.4 78.8 48.8 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.6 24.2 14.1 121.9 71.4 52.6 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 17.5 9.7 156.7 78.8 51.8 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------