***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.4 16.1 7.7 136.6 74.5 48.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 16.4 9.4 153.8 78.2 52.5 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.1 18.3 8.1 139.3 75.2 52.9 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 31.9 11.7 182.3 82.8 57.3 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.3 23.3 10.6 170.8 81.1 57.3 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 18.5 25.6 14.3 160.9 79.4 59.5 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.7 15.4 9.0 143.2 76.2 49.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.6 35.4 10.8 141.7 75.7 56.1 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 19.0 9.7 153.2 78.1 54.5 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 23.1 10.9 142.5 75.8 56.4 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 22.2 8.4 162.4 79.8 56.2 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.0 25.5 8.3 155.7 78.6 53.6 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.0 24.7 10.2 171.8 81.3 57.8 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.1 17.5 12.5 133.6 74.0 52.1 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 18.5 12.0 179.9 82.1 54.1 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 17.2 25.8 9.3 177.3 82.2 58.3 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 17.3 8.8 139.1 75.3 49.9 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 21.3 12.7 129.1 73.0 57.2 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 19.8 9.5 152.8 78.0 53.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 22.5 14.9 129.9 73.1 59.2 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.3 17.2 8.0 142.2 75.7 52.2 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.9 17.7 9.1 131.6 73.7 50.7 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.5 16.1 9.7 148.9 77.3 52.7 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.5 19.0 10.8 128.7 72.8 54.8 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.2 22.0 10.7 164.3 80.2 55.3 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.1 24.0 9.6 190.2 84.2 55.0 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.8 18.3 9.7 146.0 76.5 51.3 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.9 20.9 11.6 180.2 82.4 55.6 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.6 28.6 13.2 124.8 71.9 56.5 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.0 20.3 9.1 150.2 77.5 52.3 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------