***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.0 18.1 1.1 80.7 74.9 13.6 14.1 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.9 17.8 1.1 79.7 73.8 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 16.8 17.0 18.0 0.9 74.3 69.3 15.8 16.3 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.3 15.2 0.5 66.4 62.9 11.2 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.9 15.1 0.3 59.5 57.2 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.9 12.9 0.2 57.1 55.3 11.4 11.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.2 18.1 1.2 81.3 75.6 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.5 12.7 0.2 57.4 55.6 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 13.9 14.1 15.1 0.3 59.3 57.1 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.8 13.5 0.2 57.3 55.5 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 14.5 0.2 57.4 55.4 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.8 13.5 0.2 58.1 55.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.6 12.8 -0.1 47.2 46.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.7 15.1 0.4 62.6 60.1 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.4 16.7 0.7 70.0 66.3 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.3 13.8 0.1 52.2 50.9 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.3 17.6 1.2 81.3 75.5 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.4 12.7 0.2 58.2 56.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.7 17.7 1.0 76.8 71.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.4 10.7 0.2 56.3 54.8 7.8 8.2 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.8 16.5 0.4 62.2 59.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.2 17.5 1.0 77.7 72.1 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 13.9 14.0 17.5 0.8 74.3 69.2 13.1 13.5 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.2 14.9 0.4 63.1 60.2 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 13.9 14.3 16.5 0.7 69.5 65.7 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.1 12.7 0.2 57.6 55.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.7 15.0 17.3 1.0 76.9 71.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.9 15.4 0.4 63.2 60.3 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.7 12.1 0.2 57.6 56.0 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.9 15.2 18.2 1.1 80.2 74.1 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------