***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.0 15.9 0.2 53.4 52.5 10.9 11.8 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.1 15.8 0.3 55.8 54.0 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.2 16.1 0.1 52.5 51.8 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.2 13.3 0.0 49.2 49.4 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.4 13.0 -0.3 44.1 45.6 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.7 11.4 -0.2 45.7 46.7 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.4 16.1 0.4 56.7 54.5 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.1 11.1 -0.1 47.0 47.7 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.5 13.1 -0.3 43.4 45.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.4 11.7 -0.3 44.7 45.9 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.1 12.5 -0.3 44.9 46.3 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.5 11.7 -0.2 45.1 46.5 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.2 10.9 -0.6 39.0 41.9 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.1 13.3 -0.2 45.1 46.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.8 14.7 0.2 53.0 52.2 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.8 11.9 -0.3 43.1 45.0 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.7 15.6 0.3 56.2 54.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.2 10.9 -0.3 44.8 46.3 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 15.8 0.3 54.9 53.4 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.4 8.9 -0.2 45.3 46.8 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.2 14.6 -0.2 45.9 47.0 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 15.5 0.3 55.5 53.7 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.6 15.6 0.2 53.0 52.1 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.7 13.0 -0.2 46.4 47.4 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.8 14.3 -0.1 48.6 49.0 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 10.0 10.7 11.1 -0.2 45.6 46.9 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.3 15.2 0.1 52.1 51.6 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.4 13.6 0.0 49.7 49.8 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.0 10.4 -0.2 44.8 46.4 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.6 16.1 0.3 56.0 54.1 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------