***************** ECMWF monthly forecast *********************
**************************************************************
PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama
PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije
eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala
anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije
pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala
apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala
33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana  66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010)
p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce)
**************************************************************
fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka
valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012.
**************************************************************
ghid      p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66      pad1   pad2   eavg  anacp% pctacp avpacp  33%    50%    66% br.god
18000G04    63    37     0   100 9999.0   25.4   20.2   55.3   36.4   31.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0   25   Banatski Karlovac             
17000G06    61    39     0   100   23.9   29.5   22.1   62.0   38.8   35.4   26.0   36.7   49.6   30   Becej                         
27400G00    67    33     0   100   25.3   33.2   21.5   60.2   38.5   33.3   29.2   42.7   59.2   30   Beograd                       
28900G14    69    31     0   100   33.2   45.5   21.8   65.4   44.2   35.5   38.0   49.6   62.6   29   Crni Vrh                      
38400G13    68    32     0   100   19.4   26.8   21.1   62.1   39.8   32.6   22.8   33.7   46.9   30   Cuprija                       
39700G22    68    32     0   100   18.7   29.9   28.9   70.7   43.8   37.0   22.2   34.9   50.6   30   Dimitrovgrad                  
17400G03    58    42     0   100   23.4   28.3   22.5   61.8   38.6   35.6   24.7   36.2   49.9   30   Kikinda                       
37800G18    63    37     0   100   45.8   54.5   24.6   65.2   37.1   32.9   50.3   68.8   90.3   30   Kopaonik                      
27800G12    67    33     0   100   26.1   33.5   22.0   62.1   38.6   31.8   29.7   41.6   55.2   30   Kragujevac                    
37600G18    64    36     0   100   34.5   41.2   25.7   64.2   37.8   32.6   37.8   49.6   62.3   30   Kraljevo                      
38300G19    63    37     0   100   24.4   33.0   20.5   70.3   44.3   36.0   26.7   36.5   47.5   30   Krusevac                      
38200G21    63    37     0   100   23.7   30.9   19.4   68.0   41.6   34.9   26.1   36.2   47.8   30   Kursumlija                    
38900G23    67    33     0   100   20.3   29.6   23.1   70.6   42.4   35.5   23.3   35.1   48.8   30   Leskovac                      
26200G08    66    34     0   100   38.2   45.8   27.8   62.5   36.8   33.8   42.8   57.1   73.1   30   Loznica                       
29500G14    73    27     0   100   11.8   22.3   20.9   72.0   46.4   35.1   14.8   24.5   36.7   30   Negotin                       
38800G20    68    32     0   100   20.0   31.9   22.2   73.3   45.6   37.2   23.5   35.1   49.2   30   Nis                           
06700G01    55    45     0   100   25.3   28.5   21.0   58.6   37.1   34.6   26.0   35.9   47.4   30   Palic                         
37000G16    68    32     0   100   27.1   32.7   30.5   63.3   34.9   31.9   31.3   44.4   59.5   30   Pozega                        
16800G06    63    37     0   100   25.7   32.5   21.8   62.1   39.4   35.5   28.4   40.2   54.0   30   Rimski Sancevi                
36900G16    70    30     0   100   36.7   42.5   35.0   66.7   33.4   31.3   42.2   55.5   70.4   30   Sjenica                       
27900G10    67    33     0   100   22.8   31.0   20.1   59.1   39.6   32.5   26.2   39.4   55.0   30   Smederevska Palanka           
16000G05    57    43     0   100   30.8   33.5   21.2   57.6   35.0   33.0   32.3   44.1   57.8   30   Sombor                        
26600G07    68    32     0   100   25.8   34.7   22.2   62.7   40.7   36.0   29.7   41.1   54.4   30   Sremska Mitrovica             
26900G09    68    32     0   100   33.9   41.7   26.8   62.9   36.9   32.9   38.6   52.0   67.3   30   Valjevo                       
28500G11    67    33     0   100   20.4   28.2   23.6   59.7   39.4   33.1   23.7   36.4   52.1   30   Veliko Gradiste               
48900G24    63    37     0   100   19.5   27.8   19.8   73.3   45.3   38.1   21.6   30.4   40.8   30   Vranje                        
18300G04    65    35     0   100   24.3   31.0   23.8   58.1   37.6   32.9   27.6   41.2   57.9   30   Vrsac                         
39200G15    72    28     0   100   18.0   28.2   21.5   69.8   45.7   36.0   21.5   30.4   40.9   30   Zajecar                       
36700G16    68    32     0   100   44.2   51.8   33.0   64.8   34.8   32.2   50.3   66.6   85.4   30   Zlatibor                      
17300G02    63    37     0   100   22.9   28.6   22.2   61.6   38.5   34.8   25.2   36.6   49.8   30   Zrenjanin                     


------------------------------
ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju
------------------------------

------------------------------
padavine > gornjeg tercila
------------------------------
dani

 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8
12-18 0.6-0.7
19-25 0.5-0.6
26-32 0.5-0.6
------------------------------
padavine < donjeg tercila
------------------------------
dani

 5-11 0.7-0.8
12-18 0.6-0.7
19-25 0.5-0.6
26-32 0.5-0.6
------------------------------