***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 25.8 26.6 1.0 64.4 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 26.5 25.9 26.8 1.0 64.1 57.9 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.0 26.8 1.2 66.2 59.9 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 19.0 18.5 25.1 1.0 64.0 59.4 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 26.8 26.6 25.3 1.2 66.6 61.2 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 25.7 25.9 23.5 1.6 72.4 65.7 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 22.1 25.5 26.5 0.9 63.1 57.1 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.1 23.8 1.5 70.4 64.1 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.3 25.6 1.3 68.1 62.0 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 26.0 26.0 24.4 1.5 70.0 63.5 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 26.5 26.7 25.1 1.5 70.6 64.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 25.7 25.9 25.0 1.5 70.8 64.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.8 24.6 1.6 71.1 64.5 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 26.3 26.2 25.3 1.5 69.4 62.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 26.8 26.3 25.6 1.0 65.2 60.2 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 27.2 27.4 25.0 1.5 70.2 64.0 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 22.0 25.2 26.4 1.0 64.6 58.0 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.2 23.6 1.5 70.1 63.1 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 26.2 25.8 27.0 1.2 66.0 59.4 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 21.3 21.3 21.5 1.3 68.6 62.5 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 26.4 26.1 26.3 1.1 65.3 59.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 26.3 25.9 26.6 1.2 67.1 59.9 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.1 26.9 1.4 68.8 61.4 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 26.1 25.9 25.3 1.5 69.8 62.5 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 26.4 25.9 25.2 1.0 64.6 58.8 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 26.1 26.1 24.5 1.3 68.0 62.5 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 22.5 25.7 25.7 1.0 64.1 58.1 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 26.7 26.3 25.4 1.0 64.7 60.2 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 20.7 20.8 22.6 1.4 69.4 62.7 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 22.3 25.7 26.9 1.0 64.2 58.1 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------