***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 16.9 17.9 20.5 2.7 89.9 88.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 16.6 17.3 19.6 2.2 86.0 83.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 19.3 20.1 20.3 2.4 88.9 86.9 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 15.5 16.4 17.4 2.1 86.9 84.4 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 15.3 16.1 18.2 2.1 88.0 85.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.2 15.1 15.4 2.2 91.0 88.1 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 16.8 17.4 19.6 2.1 83.4 81.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 10.3 11.6 15.8 2.4 92.3 89.2 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 16.5 17.7 18.6 2.5 91.6 89.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 16.4 17.6 16.8 2.5 92.9 90.3 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 15.8 16.3 17.6 1.7 82.9 80.5 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 14.0 14.8 16.8 2.1 88.8 85.7 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 15.0 15.6 16.2 1.6 84.2 80.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 16.8 17.5 17.7 2.0 87.9 85.3 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 17.5 18.3 19.6 2.1 88.4 85.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 16.8 17.1 16.7 1.4 80.7 77.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 17.1 17.7 19.1 2.0 84.9 82.0 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 14.7 15.8 15.8 2.2 90.9 88.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 16.6 17.1 19.7 2.2 86.1 83.8 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 10.6 11.8 14.1 2.3 93.3 90.4 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 16.3 17.1 19.4 2.2 89.0 87.0 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.3 19.2 1.8 83.0 80.1 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 15.9 16.4 19.7 2.0 85.4 82.9 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 16.7 17.6 17.9 2.2 90.2 87.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 16.6 17.5 19.6 2.6 88.6 86.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 15.3 16.1 15.7 2.1 90.3 87.5 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 17.3 18.4 20.0 2.7 89.4 87.6 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 15.1 15.9 18.0 2.0 87.2 84.4 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 14.5 15.7 15.2 2.4 92.6 89.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 17.0 17.7 20.1 2.3 86.7 84.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------