***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.9 12.5 7.2 83.8 62.8 39.7 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.2 10.8 6.8 73.5 58.0 39.1 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.0 15.6 7.3 91.2 64.0 43.1 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 18.8 8.8 115.8 70.6 48.3 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.9 20.5 9.2 124.9 72.5 49.4 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.8 16.4 13.8 128.5 73.6 53.0 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.9 7.8 6.4 65.6 55.0 37.5 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 38.7 12.7 150.2 77.5 53.1 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.5 24.9 9.7 130.5 73.8 51.3 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.9 27.6 12.4 137.2 75.0 52.9 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.4 20.9 9.1 150.9 77.6 50.6 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.2 20.1 9.2 157.9 78.9 49.9 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.9 19.6 10.0 134.2 74.4 50.9 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.0 26.3 11.4 105.0 68.2 53.0 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 8.5 7.6 115.5 70.3 44.8 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.7 20.9 9.2 141.5 76.0 51.1 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 4.1 10.6 6.8 67.1 56.0 39.3 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 19.6 14.4 131.2 73.8 55.3 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.6 7.0 79.4 60.0 40.4 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 27.9 17.0 141.5 75.8 56.5 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.5 20.0 8.0 117.6 70.8 47.1 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.8 13.1 7.4 74.0 57.9 40.3 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.1 15.4 7.5 87.1 62.7 44.6 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.2 25.2 11.4 115.6 70.2 52.8 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.9 18.2 9.0 98.1 66.4 45.1 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.4 16.1 7.9 137.3 75.0 50.4 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 14.3 8.5 83.3 62.4 41.3 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 13.5 8.8 124.0 72.4 47.8 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.8 32.5 14.8 131.2 73.8 55.4 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.0 6.8 75.7 58.8 38.8 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------