***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.2 17.2 0.9 64.5 60.5 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.1 17.0 0.8 63.1 59.9 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.2 16.9 0.7 61.5 58.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 10.9 10.6 14.9 0.7 63.2 60.5 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.2 14.5 0.7 63.4 60.9 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.4 12.9 0.9 67.6 62.8 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.5 17.1 0.9 65.8 61.7 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 6.9 6.7 12.8 0.9 67.1 63.1 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.2 14.8 0.8 65.2 62.4 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.2 13.3 0.8 66.1 62.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.9 14.0 0.8 65.9 62.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.3 13.8 0.9 67.3 63.3 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 12.5 12.5 13.1 0.8 66.7 62.3 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.0 13.6 14.7 0.6 61.5 59.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.4 16.0 1.0 68.9 64.6 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.9 13.7 13.8 0.8 65.5 61.9 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.5 16.2 0.5 59.5 57.5 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.0 12.7 0.8 64.9 61.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.2 16.9 0.7 62.4 59.6 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.7 10.8 0.6 61.2 58.0 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.8 16.1 0.7 63.0 60.3 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.6 16.1 0.5 58.5 56.8 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 13.1 12.9 16.6 0.7 63.2 60.4 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.1 14.7 0.7 63.2 60.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.3 15.6 0.8 64.9 61.3 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.2 13.3 0.7 63.0 59.6 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.8 16.4 1.0 67.1 62.5 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.1 15.3 0.8 65.5 61.9 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.7 12.1 0.8 65.5 61.5 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.6 17.3 0.8 63.9 60.3 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------