***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 31.6 29.8 2.1 79.6 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 31.2 32.0 30.0 2.4 81.7 72.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.3 30.2 2.5 83.8 73.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.4 25.5 28.7 2.2 80.9 71.1 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 32.0 33.3 28.8 2.5 82.7 72.5 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.5 32.8 27.3 3.3 90.3 77.9 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 30.8 31.5 29.7 2.1 79.3 71.3 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 19.5 21.3 27.6 3.1 88.5 76.9 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 31.2 32.5 29.0 2.6 84.1 73.7 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 31.0 32.7 28.0 2.9 87.0 75.8 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 31.6 33.4 28.7 3.0 87.3 76.2 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 30.9 32.8 28.8 3.2 88.9 77.5 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 32.0 34.1 28.4 3.3 88.7 76.9 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 31.0 32.9 28.8 3.1 89.0 77.1 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 32.0 33.2 29.5 2.5 84.3 74.0 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.7 34.6 28.7 3.1 87.6 76.2 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 30.5 31.6 29.7 2.5 83.5 74.6 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 30.0 31.7 27.2 3.0 88.4 76.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 30.9 32.1 30.4 2.7 84.9 75.1 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 26.0 28.0 25.1 3.0 88.3 75.8 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 31.2 32.2 29.5 2.3 81.2 71.7 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 31.1 32.6 29.9 2.8 86.3 76.5 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 30.9 32.5 30.5 3.1 88.7 77.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 30.7 32.5 28.8 3.0 88.6 76.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 31.4 32.5 28.6 2.2 80.9 71.2 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 31.5 33.5 28.4 3.0 87.6 76.0 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.8 29.0 2.1 80.0 71.0 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 32.0 33.1 29.2 2.5 82.7 72.6 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 25.5 27.6 26.1 3.0 88.8 76.2 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 31.1 32.0 30.1 2.3 81.0 72.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------