***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 7.6 4.0 69.5 54.9 33.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.4 5.4 83.2 60.3 39.5 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.8 7.4 4.3 70.9 55.1 33.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 1.9 6.6 3.9 66.1 53.3 28.9 2.6 5.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 1.2 3.6 3.9 63.5 51.7 28.3 1.8 3.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.1 5.7 5.9 68.2 55.0 35.3 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.8 5.5 83.5 60.5 41.4 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.3 10.0 5.3 72.7 56.7 34.0 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 1.7 5.4 3.9 60.8 50.7 29.2 2.0 5.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.9 5.3 70.5 55.1 33.5 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 1.5 4.5 3.5 60.4 51.2 29.1 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 1.5 4.4 3.7 63.0 53.6 30.2 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.8 5.3 4.6 68.2 56.2 34.6 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.9 10.6 6.1 72.8 55.1 35.3 4.2 8.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.3 4.6 3.2 62.1 52.3 27.8 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.0 5.1 3.9 61.7 52.5 31.4 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.2 10.0 5.9 87.5 61.9 42.2 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 8.8 6.7 73.0 55.8 36.4 2.9 6.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.4 5.1 81.0 59.5 37.9 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.6 7.7 79.0 57.7 38.8 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.0 5.6 3.4 59.6 49.6 28.2 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 3.1 11.6 5.5 80.5 59.3 40.3 3.7 8.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.0 8.7 4.9 76.4 57.9 35.5 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.8 7.1 5.7 71.3 55.2 35.1 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.3 4.2 67.9 53.0 31.2 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.7 4.6 3.7 63.7 54.0 32.3 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 3.0 7.8 4.6 70.6 55.1 34.9 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.6 4.9 3.7 63.8 53.3 29.3 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.2 9.2 7.1 74.2 55.8 36.8 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.7 5.0 79.6 59.2 38.3 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------