***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 34.2 34.5 6.1 99.9 99.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 31.1 37.2 34.9 6.3 99.8 99.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 30.9 37.1 34.8 6.2 99.9 99.4 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 24.2 29.3 31.8 5.1 99.3 98.3 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 31.7 37.4 32.8 5.6 99.6 98.9 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 30.3 33.1 28.4 3.6 95.6 93.4 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 30.8 37.1 34.5 6.1 99.9 99.5 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 19.4 23.1 30.3 5.2 98.8 97.5 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 31.0 36.8 33.7 6.0 99.8 99.3 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 30.7 35.6 31.8 5.9 99.6 98.8 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 31.2 36.0 32.1 5.3 99.3 98.3 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 30.3 34.3 31.3 5.0 98.7 97.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 31.6 35.7 31.1 4.8 98.6 97.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 30.7 36.0 33.0 6.1 99.7 99.1 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 31.7 35.6 33.2 4.7 99.0 97.9 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 32.3 36.9 31.6 4.9 98.9 97.8 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 30.4 36.8 34.5 6.5 99.9 99.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 29.6 34.2 30.8 5.9 99.5 98.6 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 30.6 36.8 35.0 6.4 99.9 99.4 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 25.7 29.5 28.3 5.3 98.9 97.5 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 31.1 36.9 34.5 6.0 99.8 99.3 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 31.0 37.5 34.6 6.5 99.8 99.4 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 30.5 36.2 34.8 6.4 99.9 99.5 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 30.3 35.6 32.8 6.0 99.7 99.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 31.3 37.3 33.1 5.8 99.8 99.4 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.4 34.6 30.4 4.3 97.2 95.6 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 30.9 37.0 33.7 5.9 99.9 99.4 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 31.7 35.5 32.1 4.5 98.7 97.3 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 25.2 29.9 29.9 5.9 99.5 98.5 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 30.9 36.9 34.9 6.2 99.9 99.4 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------