***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9999.0 17.6 19.8 2.3 98.7 92.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 15.9 17.7 19.6 2.1 97.8 90.8 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 18.3 20.3 19.7 2.3 99.1 94.0 16.8 17.3 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 13.9 15.6 17.4 1.6 95.9 88.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 14.4 15.8 17.2 1.7 97.3 90.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 13.4 14.1 15.1 1.4 93.6 86.6 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 16.1 17.7 19.6 2.1 97.4 90.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 9.3 10.8 15.4 1.7 97.3 90.0 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 15.7 17.5 17.8 1.9 98.8 92.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 15.5 16.9 16.0 1.8 98.1 91.4 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 15.1 16.6 16.8 1.7 97.6 91.3 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 13.3 14.5 16.2 1.7 97.3 90.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 14.4 15.3 15.3 1.3 93.4 85.4 13.3 13.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 16.2 17.7 17.6 1.9 98.4 91.1 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 16.8 18.3 18.5 1.8 96.8 90.4 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 16.1 17.2 16.2 1.5 95.2 88.0 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 16.3 17.7 18.9 1.9 97.5 88.9 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 13.9 15.2 15.0 1.6 96.5 88.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 15.9 17.4 19.6 2.2 98.4 92.5 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 9.8 10.7 13.3 1.4 94.4 85.3 8.8 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 15.3 16.9 19.0 2.1 98.9 93.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 15.2 16.6 19.0 2.0 98.0 90.8 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 15.2 16.7 19.4 2.2 99.1 94.1 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 15.8 17.5 17.4 1.9 98.6 92.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 15.6 17.1 18.2 2.1 98.5 92.4 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 14.6 15.1 15.2 1.1 88.0 81.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 16.1 17.8 18.9 2.1 98.3 91.8 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 14.4 15.6 17.7 1.6 95.1 87.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 13.3 14.7 14.4 1.6 96.2 88.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 16.2 17.9 19.8 2.2 98.0 91.7 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------