***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 43.7 63.5 46.9 130.4 72.8 62.5 24.1 37.5 54.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 61.2 58.3 46.6 116.7 67.6 58.8 29.1 41.7 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 71.3 78.3 51.8 142.0 76.5 67.2 31.6 46.2 63.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 71.6 79.2 50.5 142.0 75.9 68.8 33.3 47.8 64.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 53.6 58.7 53.5 143.2 76.3 68.1 19.9 31.4 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 61.1 70.3 59.0 146.5 77.4 69.2 28.5 41.0 55.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 43.8 47.3 43.0 105.7 62.4 55.1 25.2 37.0 50.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 89.7 97.7 62.6 139.4 75.6 69.1 45.9 62.9 82.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 67.8 80.8 62.5 158.4 80.2 73.2 28.4 42.2 59.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 72.2 78.7 69.0 145.6 77.2 70.5 41.3 53.2 66.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 56.5 62.1 48.7 144.7 76.7 69.2 27.0 38.0 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 51.1 56.4 46.0 139.2 75.3 68.5 24.0 34.4 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 55.6 64.8 49.6 149.2 78.0 71.6 21.1 33.3 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 84.1 92.2 67.9 139.4 76.7 66.5 40.3 56.6 75.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 35.0 45.1 36.2 110.6 66.4 58.6 16.4 28.6 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 52.2 61.5 49.1 155.4 79.2 72.0 23.5 34.0 46.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 45.6 50.4 45.7 109.6 64.5 55.7 29.3 39.8 51.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 64.5 69.9 78.6 139.5 75.9 69.1 33.9 45.7 59.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 63.5 65.3 49.6 130.0 72.8 62.7 26.2 39.9 56.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 69.6 71.5 72.6 124.8 71.0 64.8 38.5 51.1 66.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 64.8 73.7 52.1 146.2 77.2 68.9 31.3 44.3 59.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 59.5 58.9 49.2 120.9 69.4 58.1 34.3 44.6 55.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 61.3 69.9 53.1 141.9 77.0 66.6 25.8 38.8 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 81.5 91.8 69.6 145.9 78.4 69.9 41.3 56.4 73.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 47.5 61.5 49.5 125.0 71.1 61.7 29.7 41.8 56.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 50.4 54.5 36.8 136.7 74.4 66.0 19.3 30.5 44.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 53.7 69.1 50.8 125.7 71.3 61.4 34.2 47.4 62.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 49.0 55.8 46.4 138.4 74.8 67.5 19.7 31.0 45.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 87.5 91.5 78.0 134.4 74.4 67.7 48.1 63.5 80.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 50.0 48.7 45.7 118.8 68.4 59.6 23.9 34.3 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------