***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.4 4.3 5.5 44.6 43.4 29.6 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.7 4.9 43.0 43.4 31.6 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.7 4.9 6.1 48.8 44.0 31.7 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.3 6.5 57.0 50.2 37.6 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.4 6.3 59.0 50.0 37.7 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.3 7.3 62.1 48.9 37.7 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.7 41.7 42.4 29.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.8 6.7 65.1 52.0 39.2 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.0 7.1 66.2 52.3 38.5 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.6 7.2 64.6 52.0 39.4 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.9 5.9 59.5 48.9 37.1 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.0 5.9 67.8 53.3 39.8 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.0 5.5 61.0 51.0 37.4 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.2 7.4 7.3 52.3 44.7 35.0 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.1 5.0 46.1 46.2 33.1 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.1 5.9 61.6 50.7 37.9 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 1.9 3.3 4.9 42.6 42.0 30.5 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.7 8.6 67.6 52.2 41.0 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.6 4.7 5.3 45.4 43.7 31.4 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 7.8 8.8 71.6 52.3 43.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.9 5.9 51.0 46.2 32.7 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.3 4.3 5.7 47.4 43.9 32.7 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.0 5.5 44.8 41.3 30.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.0 6.8 7.3 56.0 45.8 35.8 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.1 6.6 47.7 43.8 32.9 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.4 5.3 60.8 47.8 39.1 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.9 4.6 6.1 43.9 41.3 30.2 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.1 5.9 56.1 50.5 37.0 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.1 9.8 70.1 51.6 42.4 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.1 3.9 5.1 44.1 43.5 30.4 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------