***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 19.1 21.1 15.5 51.5 34.8 30.5 19.9 33.3 51.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.7 32.3 19.4 63.6 38.5 34.5 28.3 41.4 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 23.9 29.9 17.9 59.4 35.6 31.6 27.9 42.1 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 21.1 30.5 16.6 58.8 40.4 31.7 23.8 40.1 61.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 18.5 27.1 20.5 66.7 45.1 37.5 19.6 30.8 44.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 23.3 32.3 22.0 60.4 42.0 35.3 25.9 38.4 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.9 25.8 18.3 58.5 34.4 31.9 24.8 37.2 52.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 71.9 62.0 26.9 76.1 50.2 42.6 44.0 61.6 81.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 25.9 37.2 22.4 67.8 45.9 37.5 27.0 40.9 57.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 39.7 50.0 27.5 72.1 47.0 39.5 40.1 52.3 65.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.5 32.3 16.1 62.0 43.8 36.3 25.3 36.5 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.8 31.2 17.5 69.2 48.9 41.2 21.6 32.0 44.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 18.5 25.9 17.4 64.1 43.2 37.4 19.0 31.0 46.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 37.0 46.5 28.1 66.6 40.8 36.4 38.9 56.3 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 12.3 19.9 15.1 57.8 40.2 30.2 14.9 27.4 43.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 20.2 26.5 14.7 58.1 41.2 35.5 21.8 32.3 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 26.4 30.9 20.2 62.5 35.2 31.8 29.5 40.7 53.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 32.4 44.3 35.8 78.7 49.3 42.5 32.9 44.9 58.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 25.7 31.0 19.2 63.6 38.8 34.4 26.4 40.6 58.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.1 54.8 42.5 92.9 56.8 48.6 35.5 48.9 64.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 26.9 34.0 17.7 59.2 39.4 33.0 29.3 42.4 57.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 31.8 37.1 22.4 66.5 38.2 33.7 34.0 44.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.4 26.8 19.2 62.1 38.4 33.7 22.7 36.9 54.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 37.6 48.3 27.8 68.6 43.3 37.8 39.0 54.7 72.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 21.4 26.4 20.0 58.8 36.8 31.3 23.7 37.4 54.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 34.9 32.2 19.6 85.0 54.8 48.1 17.4 28.4 42.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 24.2 27.0 18.7 53.5 34.2 30.3 26.3 42.0 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 16.0 22.6 15.0 56.5 40.2 31.7 18.2 29.5 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 44.9 62.0 37.7 81.4 51.1 44.1 45.2 60.9 78.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 17.7 20.8 18.4 60.5 37.6 33.6 18.2 29.3 43.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------