***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 19.0 26.9 23.8 60.0 40.6 34.8 21.4 34.2 50.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.7 35.2 23.4 62.2 41.4 36.9 29.1 41.7 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 23.6 31.3 24.0 57.1 37.6 33.2 27.6 41.8 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 21.9 31.1 22.4 60.2 41.9 34.5 23.5 39.1 59.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 16.7 22.0 21.6 60.3 41.0 34.7 17.3 28.2 42.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 22.7 31.3 26.1 66.1 41.8 34.9 25.2 37.4 52.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.6 30.8 24.0 64.2 42.8 38.5 24.3 36.3 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 41.5 53.6 27.5 67.3 42.7 36.9 44.3 61.1 80.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.6 32.3 23.7 59.5 39.5 34.2 27.4 41.1 57.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 38.3 47.1 29.7 66.2 42.1 36.9 40.1 53.0 67.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 23.2 30.2 20.7 61.4 41.3 35.2 24.7 36.2 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 19.7 27.0 20.4 66.0 43.6 36.3 21.0 31.1 43.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 16.6 25.8 20.2 65.2 44.2 35.5 18.4 30.0 45.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 31.5 40.3 34.1 62.3 38.3 34.0 35.2 53.2 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.0 21.8 17.6 57.7 43.0 34.1 14.9 27.1 43.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 19.2 26.6 20.1 63.4 42.3 34.8 20.8 31.8 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 28.9 35.8 23.3 62.3 42.6 37.7 29.8 40.7 53.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 28.9 36.6 36.1 68.2 41.0 36.6 30.7 43.8 59.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 24.4 31.9 23.8 61.5 40.3 35.8 26.2 40.0 57.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 31.1 38.9 36.0 69.6 39.3 36.1 33.9 47.3 62.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.1 33.7 22.2 55.5 38.3 32.5 29.9 42.7 58.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 31.7 38.0 24.7 63.4 41.5 36.9 32.5 43.6 56.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 17.6 24.5 24.8 60.3 38.8 34.3 19.9 34.1 52.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 36.7 44.4 31.5 62.1 38.5 34.2 39.3 54.7 72.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 18.6 26.0 23.6 58.3 39.3 32.6 21.2 35.4 53.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 13.7 22.4 17.5 65.8 42.2 32.0 16.8 28.1 42.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 22.9 31.5 24.4 59.5 39.3 33.6 25.9 41.6 61.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 17.5 25.0 21.0 62.1 44.1 35.6 17.9 29.1 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 41.9 49.3 37.1 67.3 38.7 35.3 44.2 60.2 78.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 16.4 22.3 23.7 61.7 40.6 36.2 17.9 28.7 42.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------