***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 31.5 32.6 32.5 3.1 85.5 81.5 28.5 29.7 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.0 31.6 2.0 73.6 71.0 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.3 32.0 2.2 76.0 73.0 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 24.6 27.6 31.2 4.8 96.3 92.6 21.4 22.6 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 32.0 33.5 31.7 3.7 89.0 85.1 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 30.8 35.1 31.2 5.8 98.9 96.8 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 30.8 31.7 32.1 2.7 82.1 78.6 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 19.7 21.8 30.7 4.8 94.7 91.1 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 31.3 32.0 31.6 2.8 82.4 79.1 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 31.0 32.6 30.6 4.0 90.5 86.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 31.4 33.0 32.5 3.9 89.1 85.2 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 30.7 33.0 32.3 4.9 94.2 90.8 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 31.9 34.1 32.8 4.5 93.6 90.3 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 30.6 30.9 30.3 2.2 75.7 72.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 32.1 34.1 34.1 4.3 93.5 89.9 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 32.6 35.1 32.8 4.7 94.3 91.1 29.3 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 30.5 31.2 31.7 2.6 79.7 76.5 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 29.9 31.6 29.9 4.4 91.8 87.9 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 30.0 30.0 31.1 1.3 66.6 64.8 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 26.2 29.2 28.9 5.3 97.2 94.1 23.1 24.3 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 31.3 32.2 32.5 3.1 84.3 80.6 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.1 31.1 2.0 74.8 72.0 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 29.3 29.8 30.8 0.9 60.9 59.7 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.1 31.1 3.0 82.2 78.6 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 31.6 32.8 31.7 3.4 87.1 83.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 31.6 34.4 32.1 5.0 95.8 93.1 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 31.0 32.2 31.9 3.2 86.3 82.3 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 32.0 34.7 32.8 4.9 96.8 93.5 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 25.5 27.4 29.3 4.5 92.8 89.0 22.6 23.7 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.1 31.8 2.2 75.5 72.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------