***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 16.1 17.5 0.2 54.6 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 17.7 0.4 57.6 54.0 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.8 18.0 17.6 0.5 60.2 56.2 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 11.8 13.6 15.9 0.4 58.7 55.1 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.7 15.6 0.4 59.8 55.9 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.2 14.2 0.7 66.4 60.3 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.4 17.5 0.2 54.8 52.2 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.0 14.0 0.6 63.4 58.6 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.3 16.0 0.5 62.2 57.6 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.1 14.5 0.6 63.8 58.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.6 15.4 0.7 65.8 59.9 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.0 15.0 0.8 67.2 61.1 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.6 14.2 14.5 0.8 69.5 62.2 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.1 16.2 0.8 67.7 61.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.5 17.1 0.7 66.2 60.3 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.9 15.2 0.8 68.3 61.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.9 17.2 0.4 58.3 54.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.5 13.8 0.7 66.3 60.0 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.7 17.8 0.6 62.4 57.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.2 12.2 0.5 60.9 56.4 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.7 16.8 0.3 57.5 54.5 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.7 15.0 17.4 0.6 62.4 57.3 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.3 17.8 0.9 68.6 61.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.6 15.9 0.8 67.6 61.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.0 16.2 0.4 58.1 54.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.5 14.7 0.8 68.3 62.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.6 16.8 0.3 56.5 53.5 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.9 16.5 0.6 63.5 58.4 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.5 13.2 0.7 65.2 59.4 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.8 17.7 0.3 56.6 53.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------