***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 27.4 27.1 27.8 -2.0 20.7 24.3 28.3 29.6 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 27.3 27.2 27.7 -2.1 21.1 24.4 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 27.1 26.9 27.7 -2.0 20.8 23.9 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 19.8 19.4 25.5 -2.5 15.6 18.5 21.2 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 27.3 27.1 26.1 -2.2 19.0 21.7 28.5 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 25.9 26.2 23.9 -1.9 22.6 24.3 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 27.1 27.0 27.7 -2.0 20.6 24.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 15.4 15.5 24.2 -2.0 22.0 23.9 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 27.0 26.9 26.9 -2.0 21.2 23.7 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 26.6 26.7 25.0 -2.0 21.6 23.7 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 26.7 26.7 25.9 -2.0 20.9 23.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 26.1 26.2 25.3 -2.0 21.1 23.0 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 27.1 27.3 25.4 -2.0 22.0 24.1 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 26.9 26.8 26.0 -1.9 22.0 24.8 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 28.0 27.5 27.5 -2.3 15.8 18.8 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 27.8 27.8 25.8 -2.1 20.2 22.6 29.1 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 26.7 26.8 27.4 -1.9 22.1 25.4 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 25.7 25.8 24.0 -2.0 21.8 23.9 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 26.9 26.9 27.7 -2.0 22.1 25.2 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 21.4 21.6 22.1 -2.0 21.9 23.8 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.6 -2.1 20.2 23.2 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 27.3 27.2 27.3 -2.0 21.6 24.6 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 27.0 26.9 27.5 -1.9 22.7 25.7 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 26.6 26.5 25.9 -2.0 22.0 24.6 27.5 28.9 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 27.4 27.1 26.6 -2.1 20.1 23.5 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 26.6 26.6 24.9 -2.1 20.1 22.0 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 27.2 26.9 27.3 -1.9 21.5 25.1 28.0 29.3 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 27.8 27.4 26.3 -2.5 14.8 17.4 29.1 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 21.2 21.3 23.2 -1.9 22.9 25.0 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 27.0 26.9 27.8 -2.1 20.4 23.7 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------