***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 29.0 28.6 28.9 -0.3 46.5 46.9 27.7 28.8 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 29.0 28.9 29.5 0.0 50.4 50.6 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 28.9 28.4 29.1 -0.3 46.8 47.1 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 22.6 22.4 26.6 0.0 50.3 50.3 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 29.7 28.7 27.0 -0.7 43.2 43.7 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 28.4 27.3 24.6 -0.8 40.8 41.3 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 28.8 28.7 29.5 0.1 51.7 51.8 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 17.9 16.6 24.2 -1.1 38.1 38.8 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 29.1 28.4 28.0 -0.4 45.2 45.7 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 28.9 27.9 25.5 -0.7 42.3 42.9 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 29.3 28.1 27.1 -0.9 41.1 41.8 27.3 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.6 27.1 25.6 -1.1 38.2 38.9 26.6 28.1 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 29.6 28.4 26.5 -0.8 40.7 41.3 27.7 29.2 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 28.6 28.3 27.7 0.0 50.3 50.4 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 30.2 30.3 29.8 0.4 54.5 54.2 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 30.4 29.4 26.8 -0.6 43.5 44.0 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 28.4 28.6 29.5 0.5 56.2 56.0 26.9 28.2 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 27.9 27.0 24.4 -0.7 42.2 42.7 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 28.5 28.4 29.6 0.2 52.2 52.2 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 24.0 22.6 22.1 -1.1 38.1 38.7 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 29.1 28.3 28.8 -0.5 44.4 44.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 28.8 28.8 29.2 0.3 53.1 53.1 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 28.6 28.9 29.8 0.8 58.5 57.8 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 28.3 27.9 27.4 -0.2 47.5 47.7 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 29.4 28.8 27.9 -0.3 46.7 47.0 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.4 27.6 24.9 -1.4 34.8 35.6 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 28.8 28.4 28.5 -0.2 48.1 48.4 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 30.1 30.1 28.1 0.2 52.9 52.7 28.5 29.9 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 23.4 22.2 23.5 -0.9 40.3 41.0 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 28.7 28.4 29.3 -0.2 47.7 48.0 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------