***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.9 19.2 0.0 50.9 50.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.7 19.1 0.2 54.8 53.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.2 19.6 0.2 55.3 54.2 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.1 17.4 0.5 60.8 58.6 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.6 17.2 0.3 56.9 55.4 13.6 14.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.8 15.4 0.4 59.9 58.4 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.9 19.2 0.1 52.1 51.8 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.5 15.1 0.3 58.9 57.0 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 17.2 0.3 57.4 55.8 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.8 15.9 0.4 59.3 57.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.5 16.9 0.4 59.7 57.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.5 15.9 0.3 57.0 55.6 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.5 14.8 0.1 51.6 51.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.2 17.2 0.3 55.9 54.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.2 18.9 0.7 65.9 62.7 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 16.2 0.4 59.5 57.8 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.5 19.0 0.3 57.1 55.6 15.6 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.2 15.2 0.4 59.9 57.6 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.0 19.2 0.3 56.7 55.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.9 12.8 0.3 57.1 55.9 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.5 18.6 0.2 53.4 52.6 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.3 18.8 0.1 53.1 52.3 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.4 19.3 0.5 59.9 57.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.2 17.2 0.5 60.4 57.9 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.7 17.8 0.1 52.7 52.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.8 14.8 0.2 54.2 53.7 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.9 18.5 0.1 52.6 51.9 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.0 18.0 0.7 65.3 62.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 14.5 0.3 56.8 55.3 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.0 19.3 0.1 52.3 51.7 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------