***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 18.6 26.6 32.4 67.7 42.1 37.2 18.9 34.9 56.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 47.9 40.2 36.9 84.0 51.6 45.6 24.0 38.6 57.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 25.9 36.6 33.8 72.4 45.0 39.5 26.5 41.1 59.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 21.6 30.1 27.7 63.4 39.3 33.8 24.5 41.1 62.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 14.9 20.1 24.7 59.7 36.9 31.8 17.7 29.1 43.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 20.1 27.5 30.6 63.6 37.6 33.2 24.1 37.7 54.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.6 33.4 35.1 77.9 47.8 42.5 23.5 35.0 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 36.0 46.1 32.2 65.8 39.0 34.4 40.1 57.6 78.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 19.9 26.1 25.6 57.5 35.0 31.1 24.6 37.2 52.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 24.4 30.1 31.5 60.5 35.3 31.8 28.0 45.0 66.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 15.9 21.9 25.5 62.3 38.1 32.6 18.4 31.0 47.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 17.0 25.7 26.8 67.9 42.2 35.3 19.0 32.4 49.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 14.7 20.3 23.6 61.2 38.4 32.5 16.8 28.6 43.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 31.0 40.9 40.3 70.5 41.5 37.1 32.2 50.5 73.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 15.2 22.1 23.6 61.2 40.1 34.7 17.0 29.6 45.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 14.8 20.8 24.2 62.7 39.0 32.7 17.4 27.7 40.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 32.9 44.7 34.4 78.0 47.7 42.1 33.4 46.4 61.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 28.5 33.4 37.3 64.2 36.4 33.2 30.5 45.6 63.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 50.0 41.7 37.8 84.4 51.9 45.9 23.7 39.5 60.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 28.1 35.0 39.6 69.6 38.7 35.2 31.0 43.5 57.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 24.8 31.6 27.5 61.9 38.3 33.8 27.6 41.9 59.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 28.7 40.6 36.6 79.5 48.8 43.1 29.7 41.7 55.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.0 36.6 37.3 79.8 49.0 43.4 23.6 37.4 54.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 34.8 40.8 35.6 67.3 39.5 35.7 35.2 50.8 69.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 24.3 31.6 31.8 64.1 40.2 34.7 26.3 39.7 56.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 18.3 25.5 22.3 65.2 42.2 36.3 19.8 31.3 45.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.9 33.7 34.7 68.0 41.9 36.8 26.0 41.5 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 15.0 21.7 25.6 63.4 39.8 34.1 17.1 30.3 47.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 41.9 50.3 39.8 67.4 37.6 34.4 45.9 62.8 82.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.1 32.4 36.7 81.1 50.2 44.1 18.9 32.4 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------