***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 30.7 31.5 31.6 2.3 84.7 78.1 28.6 29.5 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 30.3 30.7 31.2 1.8 78.2 72.5 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 30.4 31.0 31.7 2.2 83.2 77.0 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 24.0 25.6 30.4 3.2 93.2 87.1 21.6 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 31.3 32.7 30.6 2.8 90.3 83.7 29.0 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 29.7 30.4 27.2 1.8 82.3 76.1 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 30.1 30.5 31.2 1.9 80.2 74.2 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.9 19.7 28.3 2.5 87.2 80.4 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 30.6 31.9 31.2 3.0 91.3 84.6 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 30.4 31.5 29.3 2.7 88.4 81.8 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 30.9 32.3 30.6 2.9 90.8 84.4 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 30.0 31.2 29.8 2.7 89.6 82.7 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 31.1 32.1 29.4 2.3 86.7 80.3 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 30.2 30.7 29.6 2.1 81.7 75.6 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 31.5 33.0 31.8 3.2 94.1 88.5 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 31.9 33.3 30.2 2.8 90.7 84.3 29.6 30.5 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 29.7 30.1 30.8 1.7 77.9 71.8 27.8 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 29.2 30.0 28.2 2.3 84.7 78.1 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.4 31.3 1.9 79.5 73.6 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.9 25.6 1.9 81.6 74.9 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 30.6 31.5 31.5 2.5 86.8 80.3 28.5 29.4 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 30.2 30.3 30.3 1.4 73.8 68.7 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 30.1 30.8 31.6 2.4 84.5 78.1 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 29.8 30.5 29.9 2.2 83.8 77.5 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 30.9 31.9 30.6 2.6 88.0 81.2 28.7 29.6 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 30.7 31.8 29.2 2.3 88.0 81.2 28.6 29.5 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 30.3 31.1 30.9 2.3 86.2 79.2 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 31.5 32.8 30.8 3.0 92.8 86.8 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 24.7 25.3 27.0 2.0 81.5 75.1 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 30.2 30.6 31.3 1.9 79.7 73.9 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------