***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.4 28.6 28.8 -1.3 32.4 36.6 28.6 29.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 30.1 28.5 29.1 -1.1 35.8 39.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.2 29.0 -1.4 31.9 36.0 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 20.6 20.7 26.5 -1.8 25.8 29.8 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 28.1 28.1 26.6 -2.0 24.7 28.5 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 26.7 26.8 24.2 -1.8 25.9 29.3 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.4 29.3 -0.9 37.8 41.2 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 16.1 16.1 24.9 -1.8 27.1 30.2 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 27.6 27.6 26.8 -1.9 25.8 29.6 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.3 25.5 -1.9 26.8 30.2 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.7 26.4 -1.9 26.5 29.7 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 27.1 27.2 26.2 -1.9 26.5 29.7 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 27.9 27.9 25.3 -2.1 23.8 27.2 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.6 -1.5 30.7 34.6 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 28.5 28.6 27.6 -1.6 28.1 32.1 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 28.6 28.6 26.1 -2.0 25.3 28.5 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.1 29.2 -0.7 40.0 43.0 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 26.5 26.6 25.1 -1.7 29.2 32.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.0 29.1 -1.2 34.7 38.6 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 22.4 22.5 22.6 -1.7 28.3 31.3 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.8 27.7 27.8 -1.8 26.8 30.9 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.9 28.7 29.1 -0.7 40.5 43.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.1 28.8 -1.2 33.6 37.5 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 27.0 27.2 26.6 -1.6 29.6 33.4 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 28.1 28.0 26.9 -1.8 26.5 31.0 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 27.6 28.2 26.3 -1.4 31.6 34.7 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.0 27.9 -1.3 31.6 35.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 28.3 28.4 26.7 -1.9 25.4 29.4 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.0 24.1 -1.6 30.0 33.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.3 29.1 -1.1 34.6 38.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------