***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.2 29.9 -0.2 45.5 46.1 28.6 29.4 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 28.3 28.4 29.4 -0.9 32.8 36.0 28.4 29.2 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 28.2 28.3 29.5 -0.9 32.0 34.9 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.3 27.5 -0.2 45.5 46.1 21.7 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 28.8 28.9 27.6 -1.0 30.4 33.3 29.0 29.9 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.1 25.4 -0.4 41.1 42.6 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.7 29.8 -0.3 44.0 45.0 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 16.8 16.9 25.7 -1.1 28.0 31.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 28.2 28.3 27.8 -1.1 28.7 31.7 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 27.9 28.0 26.2 -1.1 28.3 31.5 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 28.0 28.0 27.5 -1.3 24.3 27.8 28.5 29.4 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.1 -1.3 24.7 28.5 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 28.5 28.5 26.8 -1.3 24.1 28.0 29.0 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.0 -1.2 26.0 29.7 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.6 30.1 29.7 -0.2 46.4 47.1 29.6 30.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 29.2 29.2 27.2 -1.2 26.0 29.5 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.1 29.4 -0.5 40.2 42.0 27.8 28.5 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 27.1 27.3 25.4 -0.9 31.7 34.7 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 27.6 27.7 29.2 -1.2 26.6 31.0 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.5 23.5 -0.6 38.0 40.1 23.3 24.1 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.4 28.7 29.0 -0.7 36.3 38.2 28.6 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 28.0 28.3 29.0 -0.8 34.4 37.5 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 27.7 27.6 28.8 -1.6 21.5 26.2 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 27.6 27.7 27.2 -1.1 28.5 31.9 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 28.4 -0.2 46.6 47.0 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 28.3 28.2 26.9 -1.3 24.4 28.4 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.0 29.2 0.0 50.1 49.7 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.9 28.2 -0.3 42.7 43.9 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 22.5 22.8 24.6 -0.8 33.5 36.2 22.8 23.5 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.3 29.5 -0.8 34.2 37.1 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------