***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 14.9 10.4 116.0 70.6 49.3 3.4 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.9 8.7 86.2 62.6 43.5 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.1 14.8 10.4 119.6 71.8 50.8 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 17.2 10.5 115.1 70.0 45.5 3.7 8.1 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.3 9.6 111.0 69.1 43.9 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.3 14.3 10.8 104.1 67.6 45.1 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.8 9.1 89.6 63.5 43.5 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.5 21.6 9.8 97.9 65.2 43.8 6.4 12.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.4 14.6 11.0 122.0 72.0 51.2 2.9 6.4 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.2 19.8 11.6 110.7 68.7 48.2 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.1 14.2 8.9 108.3 68.5 43.3 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.0 13.0 7.5 94.5 64.5 41.3 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.8 10.8 8.5 96.5 65.5 41.5 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.9 17.6 12.7 108.5 69.1 51.4 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 13.5 8.3 117.8 70.9 43.3 2.3 5.8 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.6 12.4 9.1 107.3 68.3 43.1 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.1 9.3 82.9 61.2 45.4 4.0 8.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.6 16.3 13.4 116.9 69.9 48.4 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.8 14.7 9.0 94.6 65.0 44.8 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.5 12.5 11.1 85.9 61.3 41.8 4.9 8.9 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.0 13.6 10.5 117.3 71.1 50.2 2.5 5.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.3 10.0 94.4 65.0 46.4 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.9 9.8 106.1 68.4 48.5 3.9 7.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 21.5 13.2 128.0 73.3 53.3 4.6 9.5 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.6 14.6 10.6 107.5 68.4 45.8 3.2 7.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.9 15.4 7.8 113.0 69.6 46.6 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 16.0 11.2 112.8 69.8 48.8 2.9 6.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 10.1 9.6 113.6 69.9 44.7 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 20.4 13.8 111.9 68.7 48.7 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.0 9.4 99.9 66.5 45.4 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------