***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.4 29.4 -0.5 43.3 43.9 27.7 28.8 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.4 29.7 -0.4 44.2 44.8 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.4 30.0 -0.2 47.4 47.5 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 22.7 23.2 28.4 0.7 60.0 57.9 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 29.7 29.8 28.9 0.5 56.1 54.9 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.5 29.5 27.2 1.2 67.4 64.2 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.0 27.9 29.3 -0.7 40.2 41.2 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.6 27.4 1.1 65.2 62.3 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.5 29.5 0.6 58.5 57.0 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 29.0 29.6 27.9 0.9 61.6 59.5 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 29.3 29.9 29.3 0.9 61.7 59.6 27.3 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 28.6 29.6 28.9 1.3 66.8 63.7 26.6 28.1 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 29.6 30.4 28.8 1.1 64.8 62.0 27.7 29.2 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.8 28.6 0.5 57.2 55.9 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 30.3 30.9 30.6 0.9 62.4 60.0 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.4 31.4 29.2 1.1 65.5 62.6 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.8 29.2 -0.4 44.6 45.2 26.9 28.2 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.0 28.5 27.1 0.9 62.1 60.0 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.2 30.0 -0.1 48.9 48.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 24.0 24.9 25.3 1.2 66.0 63.0 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.2 28.8 29.9 0.0 50.5 50.1 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.3 29.2 -0.3 45.8 46.3 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.9 30.4 0.6 58.3 56.4 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.7 28.8 0.7 58.7 57.1 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.5 28.8 28.4 -0.2 47.2 47.2 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 30.4 30.5 28.7 1.4 69.5 65.5 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.2 28.8 -0.4 45.2 45.5 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 30.2 31.1 29.7 1.1 65.7 62.8 28.5 29.9 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.9 26.2 0.9 61.1 59.1 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.0 29.6 -0.6 42.4 43.2 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------