***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 15.3 15.5 18.4 -0.5 35.8 37.3 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.5 18.3 -0.3 42.2 42.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 17.4 17.7 18.8 -0.3 41.0 41.4 17.5 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.6 16.6 0.1 52.0 50.3 13.0 13.6 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.2 16.7 -0.1 47.4 46.8 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.6 14.8 0.3 60.3 57.1 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.4 15.6 18.3 -0.5 35.3 36.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.3 14.7 0.3 61.5 57.7 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.7 16.9 0.1 53.1 51.4 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.7 15.5 0.2 58.4 55.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.3 16.6 0.1 55.1 52.7 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.6 15.7 0.3 60.2 56.9 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.5 15.0 0.1 55.3 53.5 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.2 16.8 0.1 54.6 52.5 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.8 18.3 0.1 53.5 51.3 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 16.0 0.2 57.3 54.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.5 18.2 -0.1 46.2 46.0 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.1 14.9 0.3 59.7 56.6 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 18.5 -0.1 45.8 45.4 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.1 12.7 0.3 62.2 58.1 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 18.1 -0.2 42.5 42.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 18.2 -0.2 44.3 44.4 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.3 18.6 0.1 53.3 51.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 16.8 0.2 55.8 53.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.1 17.2 -0.4 37.8 39.2 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.7 14.6 0.3 59.2 56.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.2 17.7 -0.4 37.8 39.1 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.6 17.3 0.2 56.9 54.1 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.3 14.1 0.2 56.7 53.9 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.5 15.7 18.4 -0.4 37.3 38.4 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------