***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.2 18.2 -0.8 35.9 39.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.4 14.8 18.0 -0.7 36.9 40.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 17.0 17.4 18.6 -0.7 37.1 40.2 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.4 13.0 16.4 -0.5 40.5 43.9 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.3 -0.5 40.4 43.5 13.6 14.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.3 14.7 -0.1 48.6 49.7 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.2 18.1 -0.9 34.4 38.3 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.0 14.5 -0.1 48.5 49.5 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.3 16.4 -0.4 42.1 44.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.3 15.1 -0.2 45.3 47.1 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.0 16.1 -0.3 44.7 46.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.2 15.3 -0.1 48.2 49.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.2 14.3 -0.2 44.9 47.4 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.7 16.4 -0.5 40.3 43.2 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.7 16.5 18.0 -0.2 46.3 47.5 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.0 15.8 15.4 -0.1 47.0 48.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.4 15.8 17.9 -0.6 37.8 41.0 15.6 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.5 14.5 -0.2 44.7 46.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.2 18.2 -0.6 38.2 41.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.5 12.1 -0.1 47.0 48.9 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 17.7 -0.6 37.6 41.1 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.8 -0.8 35.9 39.5 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.7 18.3 -0.5 40.9 43.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.5 16.3 -0.4 41.9 44.4 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.9 14.9 16.9 -0.7 37.3 41.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.6 14.3 0.0 51.0 51.2 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.1 17.5 -0.7 37.0 40.9 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.5 14.2 16.9 -0.2 45.4 47.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.8 13.8 -0.3 43.4 45.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.2 18.2 -0.8 35.5 39.2 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------