***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.7 19.2 0.0 49.9 49.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.8 18.9 0.1 52.5 51.7 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.0 19.6 0.3 55.8 54.3 17.0 17.8 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.2 17.5 0.7 64.8 60.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.8 17.8 0.5 61.9 59.2 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 14.3 14.5 15.8 0.9 71.4 67.0 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.9 18.9 -0.2 46.7 46.8 15.3 16.1 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 9.7 9.8 15.6 0.9 70.6 66.0 8.3 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.2 18.0 0.7 66.9 63.1 14.9 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.2 16.4 0.9 69.4 65.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.4 16.0 17.7 0.8 68.1 64.1 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.3 16.8 1.0 70.7 66.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.5 16.3 0.9 70.8 66.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.9 16.9 17.8 0.8 69.1 64.4 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.9 17.8 19.3 0.7 66.5 62.5 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.7 17.2 0.9 70.5 66.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.7 18.8 0.2 55.2 53.9 15.9 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.9 15.8 0.9 70.4 65.9 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.1 19.2 0.3 57.3 55.7 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.1 13.7 0.9 72.2 67.4 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 19.1 0.4 58.1 56.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.7 18.9 0.2 55.3 54.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.0 19.5 0.8 67.0 63.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 16.7 16.8 17.8 0.8 69.1 64.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 18.2 0.1 52.7 51.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 15.4 15.4 15.7 0.9 68.6 64.9 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.3 18.6 0.1 51.4 50.6 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.4 18.2 0.9 68.6 64.2 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 13.8 13.9 15.1 0.9 70.3 65.6 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.0 19.1 0.0 49.4 49.1 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------