***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 31.1 32.8 3.3 91.0 80.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 30.6 32.2 32.8 3.3 90.4 79.3 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 30.5 32.3 32.9 3.4 91.1 80.5 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 23.5 24.8 31.1 2.6 85.6 76.8 20.7 21.9 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 31.2 32.7 31.0 2.8 87.8 78.2 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 29.8 31.0 28.6 2.7 87.1 78.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 30.2 31.8 32.5 3.2 90.0 78.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.8 19.9 29.1 2.8 86.7 77.8 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 30.4 32.1 31.3 3.1 89.8 79.4 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 30.2 31.6 29.8 3.0 88.5 78.7 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 30.7 32.3 30.6 3.0 89.0 79.8 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 29.9 31.1 30.3 2.8 87.1 78.5 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 31.1 32.2 29.8 2.7 86.3 78.2 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 30.3 31.7 30.5 3.0 88.5 77.5 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.3 31.8 2.6 86.3 77.9 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 31.8 33.2 30.4 2.8 87.2 78.7 28.9 30.1 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.8 31.4 32.1 3.0 88.8 77.3 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 29.2 30.4 28.8 2.9 87.5 77.4 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 30.2 31.9 32.9 3.4 90.8 79.9 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 25.1 26.0 26.5 2.5 83.9 75.3 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 30.5 32.2 32.2 3.1 89.6 79.3 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 30.4 32.1 32.1 3.0 88.9 77.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 30.2 31.8 32.6 3.4 91.1 80.2 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 29.9 31.4 30.6 3.1 89.5 78.7 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 30.8 32.4 31.3 3.0 89.2 78.8 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 30.7 31.4 29.7 2.3 82.6 75.4 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.9 31.9 3.1 90.2 79.4 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 31.2 32.3 31.3 2.5 85.0 76.8 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 24.6 25.7 27.6 2.7 86.0 76.3 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 30.3 32.0 33.0 3.4 90.9 80.1 27.8 28.9 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------