***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 18.2 20.6 2.3 88.6 79.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 16.8 18.2 20.7 2.2 89.2 78.6 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 19.1 20.3 20.7 2.3 89.7 80.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 14.6 15.2 18.4 1.6 81.8 73.8 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 15.5 16.2 18.2 1.7 83.8 75.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 14.4 15.0 16.5 1.7 84.4 74.5 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.9 18.1 20.7 2.1 88.3 77.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 10.2 11.0 16.5 1.8 85.0 76.0 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 16.7 17.5 18.6 2.0 87.1 77.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.3 16.9 1.8 85.5 76.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 16.2 16.9 17.9 1.8 85.7 76.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 14.3 15.0 17.4 1.8 86.3 77.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.2 16.6 1.6 83.9 75.0 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 17.1 17.9 18.4 1.8 87.0 76.1 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.7 18.4 19.7 2.0 85.8 77.0 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 17.0 17.7 17.4 1.7 84.4 75.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.2 18.2 19.9 1.9 87.3 76.0 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 15.0 15.9 16.1 1.8 85.6 75.3 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 16.8 18.0 20.7 2.3 90.1 79.7 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 10.8 11.4 14.5 1.5 82.0 72.7 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 16.5 17.3 19.7 2.1 86.8 77.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.1 17.1 19.9 2.0 88.1 77.1 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.5 20.4 2.3 90.6 80.3 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.9 17.8 18.3 2.0 88.1 77.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 16.8 17.8 18.9 2.0 86.1 77.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 15.6 16.1 16.7 1.5 81.3 73.8 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 17.4 18.8 19.7 2.1 87.6 78.2 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.5 16.1 18.9 1.7 82.4 74.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.8 15.5 1.6 84.2 73.8 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 17.2 18.6 21.0 2.3 89.7 79.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------