***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 18.0 19.9 1.1 70.0 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 17.0 17.1 19.9 1.1 69.7 65.1 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 19.2 19.5 20.0 1.3 74.3 68.6 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.8 17.9 0.9 68.9 64.6 12.8 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.9 17.8 1.1 72.6 67.7 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.7 16.1 1.1 73.8 67.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 17.2 17.3 19.9 0.9 67.3 63.2 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.6 16.1 1.2 74.3 68.7 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 16.7 17.1 18.2 1.3 75.6 69.8 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.9 16.6 1.2 74.7 69.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.8 17.6 1.3 77.4 71.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.9 17.1 1.3 77.2 70.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.6 16.0 16.3 1.2 76.0 69.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.3 17.9 1.0 71.6 65.7 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.3 19.1 1.2 74.5 68.3 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.5 17.1 1.2 76.1 70.0 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.5 19.1 0.7 63.6 60.1 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.1 15.8 1.1 73.8 68.0 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 17.0 17.2 20.0 1.2 72.4 67.1 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.0 14.1 0.9 69.6 65.1 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.9 19.2 1.2 72.7 67.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.5 19.1 0.8 65.7 61.6 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.9 19.8 1.3 75.5 69.2 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.9 17.3 17.9 1.2 74.9 68.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 16.8 16.9 18.3 1.0 68.9 64.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 15.5 15.7 16.4 1.0 71.7 66.9 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.4 17.2 19.0 1.0 67.6 63.2 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.8 18.4 1.0 71.2 66.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.6 15.2 1.1 73.9 67.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.5 20.2 1.2 71.3 66.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------