***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 45.1 28.7 86.6 55.2 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 25.4 47.5 32.4 92.0 56.1 45.4 27.1 41.6 58.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 31.0 51.6 29.9 92.0 57.0 46.4 33.1 45.7 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 34.1 58.6 29.8 88.5 56.9 48.4 34.2 51.1 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 24.0 43.3 30.1 89.8 57.5 48.1 24.1 36.9 52.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 56.0 60.6 41.9 103.8 62.6 53.7 35.9 49.0 64.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 21.2 39.9 32.8 90.0 55.0 44.1 23.0 35.6 50.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 71.4 73.6 33.4 96.4 60.3 52.8 44.1 61.3 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 29.8 48.2 30.9 89.2 56.1 46.4 31.4 43.4 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 36.2 60.3 36.0 94.4 58.6 50.4 37.2 51.9 68.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 25.0 46.8 26.0 89.3 57.8 48.9 25.2 39.1 56.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 28.4 53.0 24.3 91.4 59.5 50.9 27.6 42.7 61.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.4 43.5 31.1 97.9 60.5 51.6 22.5 34.5 49.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 35.4 63.5 38.4 95.1 57.6 49.1 35.8 54.0 76.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 40.1 38.6 25.8 85.2 56.2 49.3 20.3 32.8 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 37.8 38.4 29.5 94.3 59.2 50.8 22.0 32.1 43.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 30.7 50.5 31.4 88.8 54.4 43.8 34.1 46.9 61.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 39.0 62.7 43.7 98.3 59.4 51.8 39.3 53.7 70.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 28.2 53.2 31.0 91.4 56.2 45.8 29.2 46.0 66.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 49.7 54.8 47.4 106.5 63.2 56.4 31.7 43.6 57.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 30.6 49.3 28.6 90.7 57.6 46.9 32.0 43.5 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 32.6 47.9 30.8 87.5 53.5 44.3 34.0 45.3 58.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 28.1 47.0 29.5 90.4 56.1 46.4 28.9 41.8 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 34.6 60.7 37.8 95.2 57.7 49.1 36.6 52.2 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 30.7 51.7 33.8 89.6 56.2 46.2 33.1 46.5 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 43.7 50.1 25.8 105.3 64.3 54.9 25.6 37.6 51.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 29.7 53.2 33.9 87.4 54.8 44.5 32.3 48.1 67.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 49.4 47.8 28.2 87.2 56.8 49.2 27.0 41.0 58.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 79.0 82.1 45.2 101.3 60.7 53.6 53.0 69.9 88.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 23.1 41.4 31.6 90.9 55.9 45.3 24.2 36.5 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------