***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 16.1 18.3 -0.2 44.9 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.5 18.3 -0.2 44.9 46.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.0 18.4 0.0 50.6 51.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.7 12.7 16.1 -0.7 25.8 31.3 12.9 13.5 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.7 13.6 16.0 -0.5 29.7 34.8 13.8 14.3 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.2 -0.6 26.0 31.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.8 18.3 -0.3 41.2 43.2 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.4 14.0 -0.5 30.6 34.9 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.2 16.5 -0.3 38.0 41.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 14.8 -0.4 35.9 39.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.6 14.6 15.5 -0.5 31.6 36.5 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.8 12.7 14.8 -0.6 28.8 33.8 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 13.8 13.8 14.5 -0.5 27.6 32.9 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.6 15.8 16.3 -0.3 38.4 41.8 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.3 17.4 -0.4 34.5 38.7 16.2 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.1 15.2 -0.6 26.7 32.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.4 17.9 -0.2 45.0 46.1 16.1 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.2 13.3 13.9 -0.4 33.2 37.3 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.8 18.3 0.0 49.5 49.7 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.2 12.0 -0.6 28.2 32.9 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.2 17.6 -0.2 42.5 45.1 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 18.1 0.1 53.5 52.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.3 18.1 0.0 51.0 51.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.7 16.2 -0.2 41.3 44.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.0 16.8 -0.4 36.0 40.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.0 -0.9 17.2 23.0 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.2 17.4 -0.3 39.1 42.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.7 13.6 16.6 -0.7 24.8 30.2 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.4 -0.4 36.0 39.2 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.0 18.5 -0.1 45.8 46.8 15.6 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------