***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 55.9 57.9 32.3 94.7 60.1 49.6 31.3 46.8 65.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 50.4 50.2 31.4 90.4 57.6 49.1 28.3 42.5 59.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 49.2 53.1 34.3 102.0 62.4 52.9 31.3 43.3 56.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 59.6 74.6 41.7 114.9 67.3 55.7 34.4 51.9 72.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 43.6 48.6 40.3 103.8 62.9 51.7 25.9 37.6 51.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 67.5 71.4 59.2 131.7 73.3 64.4 34.6 47.6 62.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.4 41.4 32.1 89.8 57.3 48.0 22.4 35.1 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 73.3 79.2 43.8 103.9 62.5 53.9 45.2 63.5 84.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 49.7 51.5 40.8 98.3 60.6 49.9 30.8 42.9 56.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 62.2 65.3 46.9 100.5 61.1 51.6 38.3 53.6 71.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 46.5 52.0 33.8 105.1 63.3 50.9 24.9 38.5 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 51.0 62.9 34.4 112.7 66.6 56.1 26.1 41.8 62.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 39.7 51.2 42.5 120.8 69.5 59.4 21.4 32.9 47.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 63.2 73.1 47.5 105.8 63.9 55.2 35.6 53.9 76.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 38.8 55.8 37.2 128.0 72.0 59.4 20.1 32.6 48.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 35.7 46.3 40.0 123.2 70.3 58.6 20.3 30.3 42.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 56.8 52.6 30.5 81.2 53.0 44.5 37.0 49.9 64.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 62.1 65.3 55.8 102.5 61.1 52.2 38.6 53.8 71.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 55.6 56.1 31.6 93.2 58.7 50.1 29.5 45.8 66.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 50.4 52.1 55.6 101.1 60.0 52.7 31.5 43.9 57.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 49.3 53.3 34.9 98.9 61.7 52.2 31.5 43.4 57.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 51.6 47.9 30.4 81.6 52.8 45.3 35.3 46.0 58.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 49.5 51.3 33.4 97.6 60.4 50.9 29.7 42.2 57.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 60.2 68.2 47.5 106.3 63.6 54.5 37.1 52.7 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 53.4 56.4 41.8 99.8 60.9 50.2 32.6 46.1 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 41.3 56.4 34.5 126.9 71.7 60.8 23.3 35.3 49.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 56.2 58.8 40.4 98.2 60.8 50.0 31.4 46.8 65.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 47.5 64.1 40.9 126.9 71.6 58.9 27.4 40.8 56.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 78.9 81.1 56.1 101.1 60.0 51.8 52.3 69.7 88.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 45.1 47.3 32.5 96.4 60.3 51.1 26.0 38.4 53.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------