***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.0 6.5 71.9 58.1 36.3 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.5 7.1 83.5 61.5 41.5 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.6 9.4 7.2 71.5 57.8 36.7 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 2.5 8.8 6.6 70.2 57.6 35.0 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.4 8.6 6.5 71.5 58.5 35.0 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.4 8.0 79.8 60.2 37.2 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.9 6.9 82.7 61.3 42.2 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.7 15.0 8.3 76.8 58.9 37.8 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.5 9.5 7.4 73.5 58.8 35.9 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.2 10.4 9.0 75.9 59.1 37.9 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.8 10.1 6.0 74.5 58.8 35.9 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.7 5.8 69.7 56.5 34.0 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.2 6.5 75.4 59.7 35.8 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.5 12.6 10.3 83.5 61.3 40.7 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.0 6.5 4.4 61.7 54.4 32.6 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.9 9.0 6.0 74.5 58.8 34.1 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.9 7.4 86.8 62.6 44.3 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.8 12.5 10.2 69.6 56.4 37.8 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 10.3 7.3 82.5 61.1 40.3 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 10.3 10.9 72.5 55.0 39.1 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.3 10.8 7.1 74.2 59.2 36.3 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.4 7.5 80.5 60.7 42.4 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.8 10.6 7.8 83.7 61.5 39.1 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.8 10.9 9.1 73.2 58.1 38.3 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.8 7.6 79.6 61.5 39.9 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 2.9 8.9 5.1 78.7 59.5 33.6 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 9.7 7.2 77.7 60.2 38.8 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.7 8.9 5.9 68.9 57.0 33.6 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.3 17.2 10.8 71.3 56.0 39.1 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.6 6.8 75.8 59.0 38.7 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------