***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.8 30.1 30.4 0.7 59.5 56.4 28.0 29.4 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.5 30.1 30.9 0.8 60.9 56.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.8 30.3 0.5 56.8 54.5 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 21.3 23.0 28.2 0.0 50.0 50.3 21.6 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 28.3 30.3 28.1 0.1 51.0 50.9 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.7 25.6 -0.1 49.2 49.9 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.3 29.8 30.8 0.8 61.2 57.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.7 18.9 26.8 0.7 59.9 56.3 17.0 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 27.8 30.0 28.6 0.4 55.5 53.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.6 30.0 27.2 0.5 56.8 54.4 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 28.0 30.0 27.6 0.2 53.4 52.5 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.3 29.8 28.0 0.7 60.7 57.3 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.6 30.6 27.2 0.3 55.0 54.0 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.3 29.5 28.1 0.5 56.7 54.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 29.2 31.2 29.3 0.5 56.9 54.8 29.4 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 29.1 30.9 27.4 0.0 49.8 50.5 29.5 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 26.7 28.9 30.1 0.4 55.1 52.7 27.1 28.5 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 26.9 29.0 26.4 0.5 56.5 54.0 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.0 29.6 30.8 0.9 61.4 57.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 22.8 24.8 24.3 0.3 54.5 52.8 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.0 30.0 29.5 0.3 54.7 53.3 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.2 29.3 29.9 0.4 54.7 52.5 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.2 29.9 30.4 0.9 62.6 57.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.2 29.3 28.1 0.5 56.6 54.1 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.0 30.2 28.6 0.4 56.5 54.4 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 28.3 30.4 27.7 0.6 58.9 56.7 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.4 29.8 29.6 0.7 60.4 56.8 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 29.0 30.6 28.6 0.0 50.4 50.7 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 22.3 24.4 25.4 0.4 55.9 53.6 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.3 29.8 30.9 0.9 61.5 57.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------