***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.2 17.2 -0.9 30.4 31.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.2 17.3 -0.6 36.1 36.9 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.9 16.1 17.5 -0.8 32.5 33.7 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.1 15.0 -0.9 28.9 30.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 12.7 12.8 15.5 -0.8 29.7 31.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 11.8 11.8 12.9 -0.7 30.7 32.5 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.8 17.5 -0.6 37.1 37.8 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.0 12.6 -0.8 29.9 31.5 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.2 15.7 -0.7 32.3 33.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.1 13.8 -0.7 32.1 33.4 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 13.7 13.9 15.1 -0.7 31.0 32.4 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 11.5 11.5 13.6 -0.9 28.0 30.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.8 -0.9 27.7 29.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.1 15.5 -0.5 36.7 37.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.6 15.7 17.0 -0.7 32.9 34.4 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 -0.9 27.9 29.7 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.3 17.2 -0.4 40.3 40.8 14.9 15.8 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 12.5 13.3 -0.6 34.5 35.6 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.4 17.2 -0.7 34.7 35.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.2 11.2 -0.8 29.6 31.4 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 13.6 13.9 16.8 -0.8 30.7 32.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.4 17.3 -0.5 39.4 40.0 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.1 13.9 17.2 -0.7 35.1 36.1 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.7 15.6 -0.5 37.6 38.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 13.5 13.5 16.1 -1.2 24.4 26.2 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 12.8 12.9 12.9 -0.8 30.2 31.9 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 13.2 13.4 16.7 -0.9 29.4 30.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.1 15.5 -0.8 30.0 31.6 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.0 12.4 -0.7 30.9 32.3 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.5 -0.8 33.7 34.7 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------