***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 18.1 23.8 20.4 160.4 79.3 67.4 3.2 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.3 15.3 13.4 121.1 71.0 56.5 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 22.0 32.6 22.0 186.9 82.5 71.8 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 27.5 61.0 35.0 293.9 92.7 83.6 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 25.0 49.5 32.0 279.8 92.0 84.5 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 24.1 58.4 38.5 332.2 95.3 88.6 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.3 12.0 103.9 66.6 51.7 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 40.9 87.5 46.1 345.9 95.9 92.1 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 23.7 55.4 34.7 300.7 93.7 86.6 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 35.1 81.4 44.5 312.0 94.5 89.5 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 22.1 51.6 35.4 320.6 94.3 88.1 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 27.7 66.7 37.7 372.8 96.5 91.9 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 17.1 36.0 33.8 334.0 94.6 88.8 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 28.4 52.3 40.5 269.1 91.4 84.2 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 13.7 26.2 27.7 255.4 89.4 76.2 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 20.2 42.0 35.9 340.9 95.2 88.8 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.8 11.3 105.5 66.7 49.7 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 28.0 63.3 51.8 324.8 95.4 90.6 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 20.0 15.7 137.8 74.7 61.6 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 25.7 52.7 50.4 316.6 95.2 91.1 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 23.8 42.8 28.9 245.6 89.6 80.1 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.7 21.3 12.6 111.5 68.3 52.9 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 17.3 24.0 21.3 178.8 82.0 71.8 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 24.8 49.3 40.2 293.2 93.0 85.8 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 20.8 30.9 26.2 191.7 83.7 71.9 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 13.8 31.5 30.3 401.6 96.7 88.5 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 21.9 28.2 21.7 159.5 79.0 65.9 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 16.7 39.1 35.4 303.9 93.2 84.0 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 34.7 72.8 51.8 324.1 95.4 91.0 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.3 20.4 14.5 126.5 72.4 59.6 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------