***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 16.2 18.6 0.1 52.7 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.8 18.7 0.2 56.5 56.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.8 17.9 18.6 0.2 56.1 56.0 17.1 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.6 16.4 -0.5 32.3 34.7 12.6 13.2 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.7 16.3 -0.4 36.8 38.6 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.7 14.5 -0.4 37.3 39.2 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.1 18.8 0.2 55.0 54.9 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.4 14.4 -0.3 40.5 41.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.2 16.7 -0.2 42.6 44.1 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.0 15.1 -0.2 42.5 43.8 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.2 14.8 15.9 -0.2 42.9 43.9 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.2 12.8 15.3 -0.3 41.4 42.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.0 14.9 -0.2 41.2 42.3 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.1 15.9 16.7 0.0 48.8 49.4 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.0 16.2 17.5 -0.5 34.0 36.6 16.1 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.2 15.6 -0.3 39.0 40.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.7 18.4 0.3 57.9 57.1 15.9 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.7 13.4 14.3 -0.2 44.3 45.3 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.9 18.7 0.3 57.8 57.2 15.1 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.5 12.6 -0.1 46.1 46.7 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.4 15.1 17.8 -0.1 45.9 47.1 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.6 18.3 0.3 58.3 57.5 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.3 18.4 0.2 56.9 56.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 15.9 15.7 16.4 0.0 48.9 49.5 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.0 17.0 -0.2 43.1 44.5 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.6 13.7 14.4 -0.6 29.5 31.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.3 17.8 0.0 49.8 50.5 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 13.5 13.6 16.8 -0.6 29.8 32.6 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.7 13.7 -0.1 48.3 48.5 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.2 18.9 0.2 56.0 55.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------