***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 14.9 15.1 18.3 -0.5 32.9 35.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 14.6 14.7 18.1 -0.6 30.2 33.1 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.8 16.9 18.5 -0.6 31.3 34.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.2 16.4 0.1 53.1 52.1 12.5 13.1 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.4 16.2 -0.5 32.6 36.1 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.3 14.5 0.2 58.7 56.7 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.2 15.3 18.2 -0.5 33.9 36.3 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.1 13.9 -0.3 36.8 39.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.8 16.2 -0.4 33.9 36.9 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.8 14.7 -0.3 37.5 40.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.4 15.9 -0.5 32.1 35.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.5 14.9 -0.5 32.8 36.3 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.9 14.5 -0.3 39.1 42.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.3 15.4 16.0 -0.4 33.9 36.5 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.1 18.5 0.4 65.7 61.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 15.4 -0.3 37.9 41.0 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 -0.6 31.1 33.8 15.8 16.4 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.2 13.9 -0.2 39.2 41.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 14.9 14.9 18.1 -0.7 29.5 32.4 15.0 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.2 11.8 -0.2 41.6 43.6 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.6 17.5 -0.5 32.0 35.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.6 14.8 18.0 -0.5 34.9 36.7 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.4 14.5 18.1 -0.6 31.6 34.2 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.2 16.0 -0.4 34.7 37.5 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.6 17.0 -0.5 32.4 35.7 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.1 14.3 0.0 49.2 49.9 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.5 17.6 -0.5 33.5 36.4 14.4 15.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 17.0 0.2 58.5 56.5 13.7 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.4 13.2 -0.2 39.6 41.9 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.2 18.4 -0.6 31.7 34.4 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------