***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 14.3 14.5 17.7 -0.9 29.4 34.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 13.4 13.5 17.4 -1.1 26.7 31.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 15.5 15.5 17.7 -1.1 24.5 29.9 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 10.7 11.6 15.7 -0.3 41.6 43.0 11.1 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.7 16.0 -0.8 30.7 35.7 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.6 13.8 0.0 49.6 49.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 14.1 14.3 17.5 -0.9 29.8 33.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.6 7.2 13.6 -0.4 40.4 43.5 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.1 16.3 -0.6 34.3 38.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 13.7 14.2 14.5 -0.4 38.4 41.7 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.0 16.0 -0.5 36.6 40.1 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.4 11.8 14.7 -0.6 35.7 39.9 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.6 15.1 -0.3 42.9 45.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.5 15.7 -0.8 29.4 35.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.7 18.3 0.2 55.7 54.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 13.9 14.4 15.5 -0.6 36.0 39.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 14.4 14.6 17.1 -1.0 27.0 31.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.0 12.3 13.6 -0.6 33.7 39.0 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 13.6 13.7 17.4 -1.1 25.4 30.3 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.4 11.9 -0.5 37.1 41.6 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 13.4 13.6 17.2 -0.8 30.4 34.8 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 13.6 13.8 17.4 -0.9 27.8 32.3 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 13.3 13.4 17.4 -1.1 25.8 30.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 14.0 14.1 15.7 -0.9 28.4 34.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.9 16.8 -0.8 30.4 35.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.3 14.0 -0.3 42.7 45.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 13.0 13.4 17.2 -0.8 31.4 35.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.7 16.4 -0.2 44.9 45.9 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.2 13.0 -0.5 36.0 41.0 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 13.9 14.1 17.7 -1.1 26.9 31.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------