***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.9 20.1 1.4 75.6 68.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.8 21.0 2.3 86.5 78.8 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.6 18.9 20.0 1.3 74.5 68.2 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 17.2 0.3 55.7 54.7 11.9 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.7 16.9 0.4 59.1 57.0 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.5 15.0 0.4 59.0 57.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 17.0 18.0 21.0 2.4 86.3 78.7 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.5 9.7 15.5 1.1 73.1 66.9 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.3 17.5 0.8 66.7 62.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.2 16.0 0.9 69.1 64.2 14.6 15.3 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.7 16.5 0.6 62.8 59.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.9 16.4 0.9 69.4 64.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.6 15.3 0.3 57.5 55.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.3 17.8 1.3 76.1 69.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.1 18.3 0.6 61.9 58.9 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.8 16.0 0.2 55.6 54.5 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.6 18.2 20.1 2.0 82.5 75.3 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.8 15.4 1.1 73.1 66.7 12.8 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 16.8 17.6 20.7 2.1 85.1 77.4 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.5 10.6 13.6 1.1 74.4 67.4 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 1.0 69.1 63.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.0 20.0 1.9 83.5 76.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 16.2 16.9 20.1 1.9 83.4 75.6 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.8 17.5 1.1 72.6 66.5 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.4 18.2 1.0 70.0 64.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.4 15.5 0.3 57.5 55.9 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.9 19.3 1.5 76.7 69.4 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.6 17.5 0.2 54.9 54.0 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.8 14.8 1.3 76.8 69.7 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 17.2 18.0 21.0 2.2 84.7 77.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------