***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.9 15.9 11.2 94.4 63.4 41.1 5.6 10.4 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.1 12.3 9.6 92.0 62.3 39.5 4.6 8.4 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.9 14.0 11.9 98.7 64.4 43.8 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.7 24.8 13.8 122.5 71.4 50.7 5.5 11.6 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.2 17.7 12.7 113.0 68.7 46.1 5.2 9.8 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.6 16.0 12.4 95.9 63.2 52.1 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 9.1 8.9 82.5 59.2 38.7 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.4 29.1 14.2 118.3 70.2 47.0 8.2 15.4 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.7 12.4 106.7 66.8 44.8 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.3 19.7 14.8 115.7 69.5 46.2 5.0 10.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.1 14.6 12.8 111.7 67.9 48.0 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.1 20.9 11.6 113.8 68.9 45.8 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.8 10.4 101.8 65.9 49.5 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.5 19.2 14.9 101.4 65.0 43.4 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.0 13.1 13.4 129.8 73.4 51.4 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.4 11.1 106.2 67.0 47.9 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.3 11.2 9.0 84.9 59.9 38.6 4.7 8.3 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.9 20.7 16.8 116.3 69.4 47.2 6.6 11.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 5.1 14.1 10.4 98.0 64.2 41.1 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.7 19.2 17.7 123.1 71.1 53.4 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.4 12.0 11.4 102.2 65.8 43.8 4.7 8.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.8 13.3 9.6 87.0 60.2 39.1 5.3 9.8 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.5 12.8 11.0 95.4 63.4 43.1 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.3 15.4 15.1 108.3 67.1 45.4 5.6 9.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.8 16.0 12.8 101.3 64.9 44.8 4.7 9.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.7 10.1 110.3 67.8 53.1 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.8 19.4 12.5 95.7 63.3 43.4 5.3 11.5 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.8 15.2 13.3 126.6 72.7 51.1 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.2 24.0 18.3 116.1 68.8 49.7 10.1 15.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.1 12.8 10.0 91.6 62.3 41.0 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------