***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 29.7 30.3 30.8 2.0 86.8 81.2 28.1 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.3 30.7 2.0 85.2 80.0 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 29.7 30.4 30.9 2.0 85.0 79.5 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 23.1 23.9 28.7 2.0 86.5 80.1 21.1 21.9 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 30.3 30.8 28.9 1.6 80.4 75.3 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 28.6 28.6 25.5 0.7 67.8 63.8 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 29.5 30.1 30.7 2.0 85.1 80.0 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 17.9 18.0 26.5 1.1 74.0 70.0 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 29.8 30.5 29.5 1.8 84.1 78.6 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 29.5 29.8 27.5 1.4 77.4 72.9 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 29.9 30.4 28.8 1.6 80.6 75.4 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.3 27.9 1.4 77.9 73.2 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 29.9 29.9 27.3 0.9 68.8 65.3 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.5 28.5 1.4 78.0 72.4 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 30.9 31.8 30.2 2.0 87.3 80.2 29.0 29.8 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 30.9 31.2 28.2 1.4 77.8 72.6 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.6 30.3 1.9 84.3 79.3 27.3 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 28.4 28.4 26.4 1.0 70.6 67.1 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 29.1 29.9 30.9 2.1 86.4 80.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.7 23.6 0.5 60.5 59.3 22.6 23.3 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 29.8 30.3 30.2 1.7 81.7 76.4 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.4 29.8 29.8 1.6 80.5 75.4 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 29.3 30.3 31.0 2.3 89.3 82.8 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 29.0 29.3 28.6 1.4 78.3 73.1 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 30.0 30.7 29.2 1.7 83.3 77.8 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 29.6 29.9 27.4 1.2 75.8 71.1 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 29.4 30.1 29.8 1.9 85.6 80.1 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 30.9 31.6 29.1 1.8 84.4 77.7 29.0 29.8 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 23.7 23.5 25.1 0.6 63.9 61.8 22.1 22.9 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.1 30.8 2.0 85.4 80.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------